How High Is Joey McGuire’s 2023 Recruiting Class Ceiling?
Texas Tech football recruiting has been really bad for a really long time. That doesn't mean Texas Tech hasn't gotten good players into the program; they just haven't gotten enough of them.
The national rankings of Texas Tech's recruiting classes have been pretty abysmal in the last decade-plus, with only one class rating better than 30th since 2011. Kliff Kingsbury's classes peaked at 32nd and bottomed out at 49th. Matt Wells hit the valley of 72nd with the caveat of adding multiple transfers instead that don't tally onto the final recruiting ranking. Tommy Tuberville was objectively the best recruiter of the bunch.
Why do I bring all the negative up? To set the backdrop of how impressive Joey McGuire has been since his hiring in late 2021.
McGuire's first recruiting class at Texas Tech ended up ranked 43rd in the country, rocketing up dozens of spots after Matt Wells' firing. His 2023 class is currently ranked 2nd in the country.
Not 2nd in the Big 12. Not 2nd in Texas. 2nd in the country.
Now, I know it's April and a lot will change between now and signing day next December, but it's still shocking to see the double-T up there ahead of Alabama, Georgia, USC and Ohio State.
The main reason those schools still trail Texas Tech is that many of the four and five-star prospects that will commit to those programs haven't committed yet. Texas Tech is basically a placeholder in the top 5, holding a seat warm for Alabama to start signing players.
Still, Texas Tech's 2023 class is trending far ahead of where it's trended in the past. If Texas Tech didn't get another kid to commit before signing day, they'd rank similarly to where they finished last year. Again, it's April, and signing day is eight months away.
My question is, what is Joey McGuire's recruiting ceiling here at Texas Tech in his first full recruiting cycle?
The Red Raiders' highest-rated class came in 2011 when Tommy Tuberville signed 29 players, including seven 4-star recruits. Currently in the 2023 class, the Red Raiders have four 4-star players with a couple already committed who could become 4-stars with a great senior season, according to 247Sports. Another recruiting site already has five Red Raiders listed as 4-star prospects.
To stay in the top 10 by signing day in December, McGuire would have to garner commitments from at least four more 4-star prospects. The Red Raiders have room for nearly 10 more players, so it's not out of the question that McGuire and his staff can work some magic.
Amarillo Tascosa's Avion Carter is a 4-star DE that might want to stay in West Texas. The Red Raiders are also in on several more highly rated offensive linemen.
More realistically, any combination of five more prospects would keep Texas Tech as a top 30 class in 2023. That would be 20 total commits. If Texas Tech adds two more 4-star players to the class, the Red Raiders would be a lock for the top 25. Any more than that and we're looking at the highest-ranked Texas Tech recruiting class since they started tracking recruiting classes on 247Sports.com
With 15 commits on April 14th, Joey McGuire is on track to smash recruiting records and standards in the Texas Tech football program, and he's doing it with two commits from Lubbock, a 4-star commit from Post, a lineman from Amarillo and an athlete from Wichita Falls.
Who said there wasn't any talent in West Texas?